The era of global connectivity has only just begun,
according to Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation
and Development at Oxford University and former Vice President of the
World Bank.
Addressing the Exclusive Books Bicycle
Talk at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), Goldin said, “People
who want to go back to a world with higher borders and turn their backs on
trade agreements and political cooperation are fundamentally misguided. It’s
not that we are connected, we are in fact entangled.
There is no wall high enough to keep out a pandemic, or climate change, or a cascading financial
crisis or a cyber-attack,” he added.
Goldin said we needed to throw away notions of walls,
and get smarter at managing integrated systems, as “this new nervous system (of
global connectivity) that we are hyper dependent on has also become our key
vulnerability. Not only good things connect: events such as pandemics and
financial crises travel that much quicker in a connected world.”
Globalisation has meant we have made technological and
ideological leaps within our lifetime, as well as fundamental transformations
in the way in which we understand the world. The process of change has only
accelerated and become more unpredictable, as was seen with the Arab Spring
movement.
The only certainty of our times is that there is more
uncertainty, Goldin said.
Goldin said technology and automation and their effect
on human interaction needed more scrutiny: “What jobs are technology going to
take and how is it going to change society? People are threatened; they believe
technological change is not helping them, only others. How one embraces
technology becomes absolutely crucial.”
He called climate change “Our biggest and most
complicated challenge in many ways. Government is acting in the short term to
defend its own interest and is often doing the wrong thing.”
Global governance institutions to navigate change
The ability to successfully navigate these complex
challenges now and in the future would be dependent on agile global
institutions.
Goldin said there is a “huge disconnect between global
systems, connectivity and governance. The present system of global institutions
is totally unfit for the purposes twenty first century globalisation.”
He said the International Monetary Fund, which was “by
far the most sophisticated of all the global institutions,” was “totally
blind.”
“We have to think better how we are going to navigate
global systems, how we are going to understand the complexity that is
integrated into the system and how we can overcome the governance gaps which
arise through national systems and global integrations.”
Former Minister of Finance, Trevor Manuel said
established global institutions such as the World Trade Organisation, World
Bank, IMF and United Nations have become stymied and are incapable of resolving
issues: “These institutions were born of a different time. The reality is that
there is momentum that continues to drive the world to a different place, but
there aren’t institutions that can deal with it.”
Goldin’s suggested solution is to think increasingly
of coalitions, what he called “groups of actors that can make a fundamental
difference.” These coalitions could be comprised of countries, cities, even
companies to solve specific problems, such as the eradication of disease.
“We do need a more variable geometry. We have created
a system that has become a real impediment and needs to have a whole series of
interventions. If we wait for Big Brother, we will be dead.”
Fundamental shift in power
The consequence of a desire for increased
protectionism, a return to an isolationist era in the United States and the
“collapse and retreat of Europe,” would be a more rapid assertion of Chinese
leadership in globalisation, Goldin explained.
He said he took great heart in Chinese President Xi’s
speech at Davos in January, which was a robust defence of globalisation.
“China realised that they won’t succeed for their people locally if they don’t
take on a broader role. It is a fundamental, structural change.”
“Now India must step up, as they have been a very
reluctant player.” Goldin added.
Anticipating change
It is only through the improved management of globally
integrated systems that the potential of globalisation can be achieved, Goldin
said. “If we can do that, then I believe the promise of this new Renaissance
will be realised. We will live in the best century ever for humanity and will
be able to overcome poverty and diseases, not only for ourselves, but for the
next generations. But this requires wisdom, thinking and action.”
“Trying to understand history as it unfolds is
exceedingly difficult,” Manuel told the gathering. “We need a rational and
ordered discourse, as the issues won’t disappear because we don’t talk about
them.”
“Everything we’ve known in the past is going to be
different in the future,” Manuel concluded. “We are better equipped to
anticipate the change, and we can develop rules–based systems that are
appropriate.
We can’t stop the forces of globalisation. But
we must engage in discussion which allows us to govern science and politics to
ensure that there are institutions that do.”
Top Five Points
The era of global connectivity has only just
begun and we need to get smarter at managing integrated systems.
The process of change has only accelerated and
become more unpredictable.
The ability to successfully navigate complex
challenges such as automation and climate change would be dependent on
agile global institutions.
Established global institutions such as the WTO,
IMF and the United Nations have become stymied and are incapable of
resolving issues.
The consequence of a desire for increased
protectionism in Europe and the United States would be a more rapid
assertion of Chinese leadership in globalisation.
