Having narrowly missed a Moody's downgrade, the Rand has rebounded, and local equity markets took a collective sigh of relief.
The country has retained its last investment grade credit rating, but only for now.
Moody's recent shift to a negative outlook for the sovereign rating places the economy on a knife-edge. The ramifications are being felt broadly across the country, with confidence indicators hitting all-time lows. The timeline is tight. Will South Africa slip over the precipice, be downgraded to junk status and face an investor sell-off as we lose our place in the FTSE World Government Bond Index? Or will government find the political will to tackle the public sector wage bill, weakening SOEs and a looming national debt trap?
We are yet again at a crossroad. Will it be the high road or the low road? Join Gina Schoeman and an esteemed panel of experts as we unpack South Africa's economic prospects for 2020.
This conference will unpack the following issues:
- Socio-economic South Africa: Voter turnout, increasing frustration and demographics;
- Politics: Why 2020 is a make or break for Ramaphosa;
- Structural reform: The search for a capable state;
- Labour: What's to come of trade unions?;
- Macroeconomics: The real problem with GDP is a nominal one;
- Monetary Policy: Why so hawkish?;
- Fiscal Policy: Realism at a cost;
- Prescribed assets: Brace yourselves; and
- Sovereign ratings outlook: Feeling Moody.
Gina Schoeman, Chief Economist on South Africa- Citibank Global Economics.
Speakers to be confirmed.