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Making better decisions about the risks of capital projects

Never is the fear factor higher for managers than when they are making strategic investment decisions on multibillion-dollar capital projects. With such high stakes, we’ve seen many managers prepare elaborate financial models to justify potential projects. But when it comes down to the final decision, especially when hard choices need to be made among multiple opportunities, they resort to less rigorous means—arbitrarily discounting estimates of expected returns, for example, or applying overly broad risk premiums.

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